The standardised unemployment rate in October was 12.5%.The drop in unemployment comes after 30 consecutive months of increases. The total Live Register figure for the October was 412,407, a drop of 7,447 on the previous month, but an increase of 161,727 year-on-year.

This is the first positive piece of news about Jobs in Ireland. It needs to be taken with the caution and understanding of the overall picture.

The Live register figures show 67,207 job losses year to date. Therefore we are far from what the news here and abroad are saying – that we are coming out of the recession. The reality is that we are at the bottom. And also – we will be happy if this really is the bottom. If this is not just a single month where unemployment growth paused for a month.

The following unemployment graph puts us well into the perspective – a reality check of the status of the economy.

The calendar quarter estimates for Q2 2009 (adjusted for seasonality) are:

There has been a fall in the number of people on the Live Register in September.

However when adjusted for seasonal factors, the numbers rose slightly.

This has left the unemployment rate unchanged at 12.6%.

There were 423,639 people claiming unemployment benefit and assistance in September, a drop of just over 16,000 compared to August.

September is traditionally the month when part time workers in the education sector return to work, so when adjusted for this seasonal factor the Live Register recorded a slight increase of 600.

The overall effect has been to keep the unemployment rate steady at 12.6%.

While the fall in the numbers on the Live Register is over twice what it was in September last year, there are still over 183,000 more people on the Register than a year ago.

The unemployment rate has remained around the 12% mark now since June.

Central Statistics Office (CSO) published the data that show steady decrease of the unemployment numbers growth. The absolute figure for August 2008 shows the unemployment at 12.4%. Although this is a record figure it shows the steady decrease of the unemployment growth from over a 0.5% of the workforce per month, to ‘just’ 0.2 in August 2009. September is usually a good month for employment so it is expectable for the unemployment growth figure to decrease even more.

If the trend unemployment trend continues the path it was following this whole year, we will not see much higher figures than what we have today, and the unemployment growth should totally stop before the end of this year, and we should see the recovery in January 2010.

The Taoiseach has told the Dáil that the number of people who signed on the Live Register last month was up 11,400. Brian Cowen said this morning that the total number on the register is now 413,500. He said the growth was the slowest rate of increase since January.

In the year to June, the Central Statistics Office says there was an unadjusted increase of 197,781 people signing on the dole, which is an increase of 89.6%.
This compares with an increase of 195,115 in the year to May. The standardised unemployment rate in June rose to 11.9% from 11.8% the previous month. June traditionally sees an increase in the numbers joining the dole as part-time teachers and other people employed in the education sector leave their jobs.

Opposition leaders accused the Taoiseach of misleading the Dáil about the figures.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said Mr Cowen departed from the norm by quoting the seasonally adjusted numbers rather than the actual figure. He said the real increase was 21,721 rather than 11,400.
Mr Kenny said the economy was in crisis and that the Department of Finance was in paralysis.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said the Taoiseach was quoting the more attractive figure. Mr Gilmore said the Taoiseach’s comments that the figure represented the slowest rate of increase this year was akin to saying the country is sinking, but sinking more slowly.

Replying to a question from Mr Gilmore, the Taoiseach said he expected the unemployment rate would be in the region of 15.5% by the end of the year and that it could be higher in 2010.

General Secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions David Begg described the latest unemployment figures as a ‘mega-crisis’ and has urged the Government to invest €1bn into a job creation and protection plan.

Irish economy has always been sitting somewhere in between the Europe and the US. The current unemployment rate in the European Union is 8.6%. The Euro area (Eurozone) is at 9.2%

The industry where more jobs have been filled than jobs lost in May was Telecoms.

So 9.4% in US, 8.6% in EU, and Ireland with well above with 11.8% unemployment. What is even more alarming that Unemployment figure in Ireland is steadily growing while EU growth has slowed down, and US has halved in May.

The number of people on the Live Register hit 400,000 for the first time last month.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, there are now 402,100 people on the Live Register seeking unemployment benefit or allowances.

It is the first time the numbers on the dole have ever reached this level. It translates into an unemployment rate of 11.8%.

Over 105,000 people have been added to the Live Register since the start of the year.
Earlier this year, the ESRI forecast that unemployment could rise to 17% next year.

Anne Heraty the Director of the largest Irish recruitment agency CPL warned she expect the unemployment rate of above 14% by the end of the year in her presentation at the Recruitment Conference.

WOW – not surprising but still a shock all the same

Latest figures indicate that Irish unemployment rose in the moth of September to the highest in 11 years as the property crash and world credit crisis slows growth and recruitment. Unemployed recorded at 244,500 which is the highest figure since 1997. Unemployment figures have increased by 79,565 in the last year which is the biggest yearly increase since 1967.

Another report indicated that Ballina, Tralee and Dundalk were the worst unemployment spots in the country. The rate of unemployment in Ballina was 15.8%, 14.2% in Tralee and 13.9% in Dundalk. At the positive end of things were Malahide and Leixlip at just 4%.